Anton PARVANOV
Institute of Balkanistica, Sofia

Aspects of Stability and Security
in South-Eeast Europe
at the End of the 1990's

In the last decade of the 20^th century, the Balkan region and the broader area of South Eastern Europe, a number of states with old traditions or new emerging transformations, have entered into a recurrent, historically decisive stage of their civilisational development. [1] The characteristic parameters are:

• an exceptional dynamism, instability and contradictory processes, events and phenomena;
• noticeable and periodical ethnic - minority, confessional, territorial and other problems and contradictions which unfavorably influence the general stability of the region and mutual relations among the Balkan states;[2]
• non - equality of the countries from the region regarding the guarantees of their national security which depends on whether they are members of the European and Euro - Atlantic economic and political structures and organizations or not;
• an imbalance in their arms and armed forces as a result of the accumulated differences in military and economic potentials of the states in the region and the old bioc approach to the composition and implementation of the agreements in this area;
• periodically tense socio - economic problems and crises, which have turned into a characteristic feature of the internal political situation in the states of the region;
• the strong aspirations of all countries in the region, bar none, towards an accelerated, full and equal integration into the European economic, political and military structures, combined with attempts at establishing and strengthening mutual confidence, cooperation and a general Balkan dialogue;
• the continuing geo-political restructuring, both relations to the political powers in the countries of the region and in the sub - regional and regional levels.

The basic factors from a political, economic, military and humanitarian point of view influencing the various components of the geo - political situation and security in the Balkans and South Eastern Europe at the end of the XX century, can be characterized by the fact that, in addition to their individual relevance, they most often occur in combination and are manifested with different strength and intensity in each Balkan State respectively.

From a political aspect, this group of factors has the strongest effect on the changes in the geo - political status quo and preserves its leading role at the present[3]. Some of the more relevant factors among these are the following:

• A major change in the geo - political configuration of the region and the appearance of a number of new sovereign and independent states as individual subjects in international relations; a new formula emerged: 11+2 states in the region (until the beginning of the 90's when there were 6+1);
• Increased instability in the internal political sphere of the countries in the region, and in the relations of political powers and factors, which very often lead to sharp changes or essential corrections of their foreign-policy course, provoke mutual distrust and make the political behavior of a number of states less foreseeable;
• The continuing influence of certain unsolved disputes among some of the countries in the region and the strengthening of ethnic, religious, minority and territorial factors in the formulation and pursuance of their foreign policies;
• Strained mutual relations within the ethnicity - religion - state triad, which directly influences the stability of most Balkan states and the region as a whole;
• The simultaneous occurrence and influence of integrative and disintegrative processes and tendencies, both on a regional and continental level;
• The remainingserious or latent problems in the former Yugoslav territory as a sub - region of the Balkans ( like the conflict in Kosovo in 1998-1999 ), despite the initiated processes and activities following the implementation of the Dayton-Paris agreements[4];
• The intensified appearance of new-emerging non - military and non - standard risks and threats to the security of the Balkan states in particular and the region as a whole; the enormous increase in organized crime and the more and frequent acts of organized political, ethnical or religious terrorism[5], the non - sanctioned spread and traffic in drugs, weapons and technologies (here including weapons of mass destruction), manifestations of clerical extremism and fundamentalism[6], continuing ethnic - minority conflicts, aspirations toward cultural and historical heritages, activities of separatist and irredentist powers and political organizations, etc.
• The heterogeneous and multi - variant influence of the leading international factors on the development of the geo - political situation in the region; acceptance of intermediary services, use of methods and means of preventative diplomacy, "imposition of peace" (by force as well) and its maintenance through a massive military presence of a number of states, giving economic, humanitarian and military assistance, control and guarantees of preserving already achieved international agreements, coordinating functions after the realization of the post conflict recovery, etc.

From a military aspect, the changes which have occurred in relations among the armed forces of the states in the region, the increasing differences in the capacity and ability of the human factor and the modernization of the military potential, especially with regards to the conflicts in the former Yugoslavia, have made the military aspects of the geo - political situation an important priority of the international community and the states in the region. Their relevance increased enormously after the disappearance of the bi - polar system of international relations and the termination of the bloc opposition in the region, the appearance of numerous crisis situations and conflicts of different intensity, the increased risks of a broad dimensioned confrontation, the widespread belief in seeking a new balance of powers under conditions of geo - political restructuring in the region[7]. This group of factors includes the following:

• The obvious non - equality of the states in the region regarding the achieved guarantees of their security, sovereignty and territorial integrity, their military potential and the possibilities of their support and modernization, the degree of their presence and participation in European and Euro-Atlantic economic, political and military structures;
• The lack of effective mechanisms for the early discovery, prevention and handling of crisis and sub - conflict situations, of preventative diplomacy as a means for monitoring and setting such situations while they are still in a pre - conflict stage;
• The achieved general agreement of harmonization as an obligation of all the states in the region regarding their undertaking and realization of measures for strengthening confidence and security, restriction of armaments in accordance with the achieved agreements and standards established within the framework of the CSBM (Confidence and Security Building Measures) and OSCE (the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe)[8];
• Broadening of contacts and cooperation among the countries of the region in the military sphere, as well as, the states of the European continent, an increase in the relevance of military diplomacy as an important component of inter - state relations, participation of the states in the region in a number of joint training projects within the framework of the Partnership for Peace (PfP) initiative, etc.[9]
• Continuation of the international military presence in the territory of the former Yugoslav federation in a different form and mandate, with significantly limited military effects, such as the ESFOR operation in Bosnia - Herzegovina, which started on December 20, 1996, prolongation of the term for the presence of the UN missions in Macedonia (UNPREDEP), the mission in Croatia (UNTAES), and the mission KFOR in Kosovo after the June 1999 etc.
• Intensive utilization of the potentials and the means of the intelligence services, of preventative diplomacy and of monitoring, for explaining the geo - political and military situation, for the early discovery and prevention of potential and latent crisis points from becoming sub - conflict or conflict situations.

From an economic aspect, the solution of the economic, social and infrastructure problems of the Balkan states in transition has in the last few years gained an increasable imperative significance both for the geo -political situation in the region as a whole, and for the internal political stability of the states in particular and their admission to the European economic and military - political structures at the earliest possible date.

• Regardless of the degree in realizing radical socio - economic transformations, the presence in European structures, the specific features and potentials of the states, the preferential development of the economic, transportation, communication and energy relations among them has turned into a conditio sine qua non of the foreign - political and internal economic activities of the states in region.[10]
• Qualifiedly speaking, there is a new stage of development in the region as a strategically important and geo - politically unavoidable center of direct relations between Central, Eastern and Northern Europe, and the neighboring regions of the Near and the Middle East, the Mediterranean, the Caucasian region, and the former Soviet Central Asia in such strategically and politically sensitive domains as transport, telecommunications, raw materials, and power transfers, waves of tourists and immigrants, ect. The region of South Eastern Europe, here also including the Balkans, more and more imposes itself as a kind of a "dispatching point" where strategically important raw materials, communication and transport routes pass and cross.[11]
• What more and more appears in the foreground are the problems related to environmental protection, power and resource support for economic development (especially in the sphere of utilization of atomic power, the supply and transfer of strategic raw materials such as petrol, natural gas, etc.) settlement of water resource issues, the exploitation and security of international sea and river arteries and spaces (the traffic along the Danube and the Sava river after the change of its status and its begun turned into an international river, the regime of the Straits, the Piran Gulf in the Nord Adriatic sea and the peninsula of Prevlaka divided by Croatia and Montenegro (which control the access to and sailing into the gulf of Boka Kotorska) etc.

From a Humanitarian aspect, in the last few years, there have been serious problems, predominantly related to the development of the different stages of crises in the former Yugoslavia.[12] These have proven to be the largest and most difficult of problems, of similar character on the European continent, since the end of the WW II. This group of problems includes the following:

• Creation of conditions and premises for the return of thousands of refugees and displaced persons to their native places;[13]
• Giving sufficient guarantees of respect for and the preservationon of civil and minority rights of those who are willing to return, of their personal security and their gradual resocialisation in the society[14];
• Establishing and restitution of the properties of the refugees in their places of origin and, if this is not possible, their just compensation;
• Finding the missing persons after the armed conflicts in different parts of the former Yugoslav conflicts;
• Solution of the problems relating to the finding and specification of the persons who committed war crimes, of their elimination from political and public functions and their delivery to the International Tribunal in the Hague;
• Creation of an effective system of national and international monitoring and control in the humanitarian sphere, which will act in accordance with internationally established standards.[15]

The initiated movement of large masses of people returning to their places of origin after the end of the military stage of the Yugoslav conflict, unprecedented in its proportions has financial, juridical and political aspects, in addition to its humanitarian dimension. It will increase more and more in the coming few years, and will lead to greater difficulties regarding its realization. Additionally, aggravating circumstances are the remaining ethnic hostilities and mutual suspicion in many regions of Kosovo (between the Albanians in Kosovo and the Serbs, Мontenegrins, Muslims, Roma, Gorans), in Bosnia and Herzegovina (between the Serbs, Croats, Muslims), in Croatia (between the Croats and Serbs), and in Sandzak (between the Serbs, Montenegrins and Muslims) where the main political parties and national organizations have established their presence and with might and their main aspiration is to turn them into their "ethnically pure territories," and to prevent or hinder the return of their autochthonous inhabitants of any other nationality[16].

Obviously, the efforts to create a civil society in these countries, to achieve national reconciliation among the until - recently- warring ethnic communities, to re- establish the pre - war traditions and habits of mutual coexistence, and to gradually eliminate the consequences of armed conflicts on the humanitarian plane, will require a longer period of time and coordinated activities on the part of the international community and the political powers and leaders of the peoples in Kosovo, Bosnia - Herzegovina, Croatia and Yugoslavia .

On the basis of development in the geo - political situation in the Balkans during the last few years, one can perceive some basic tendencies in a positive direction:

• Settlement of the conflicts in Bosnia - Herzegovina[17], Croatia and Kosovo an approach to the gradual normalization and stabilization of the situation in the former Yugoslav territory;
• An increasing interest on the part of the leading international factors and their increased versatile presence - military, political, economic, cultural, civilization, etc.;
• Gradual establishment of the political means for discovering, controlling and solving the existing crises and problems with active mediation and intervention on the part of the international community[18];
• An increasing belief in the acceptance of the formula "securitythrough integration and cooperation" as being essential for the stabilization of the situation in the region and for the full and equal integration of the Balkan countries into the European and Euro - Atlantic economic, political and military structures[19]
• Strengthening of the premise for the establishment and broadening of Balkan dialogue in different spheres as an element of the European security architecture that is being built, utilization of its potentials in solving some issues of general regional interest in the sphere of economy, infrastructure, environmental protection, and the struggle against crime, military policy, etc.
• Creation of the minimum necessary conditions for strengthening the integrative efforts and processes of filling them with concrete contents, in which the European orientation of the Balkan states is established as a non - alternative and strategic aim, and practical activities towards full and equal participation in the different European and Euro - Atlantic structures and organizations as soon as possible[20].

At the same time, it should be noted that in addition to these favorable stabilizing tendencies and factors, there are and there will also be in the foreseeable future some negative aspects, tendencies and factors which hinder, prevent or thwart the permanent stabilization of the geo - political situation in the Balkans and the separate Balkan countries. Some of the more fundamental and more important among these are:

• The increase in the effect of the crisis manifestations and processes in the internal political and socio - economic development of a number of states in the region, and on their foreign - policy behavior and activities, often directly reflecting themselves in the mutual relations with their neighboring states and in the stability and security of the peninsula[21];
• Turning of the euphoria of glorifying the national past, ideals and dignity in certain countries of the region into a chauvinist campaign, means for achieving internal political aims, and into a method of pressure in solving disputable problems with the neighboring states[22];
• The activation of some unsolved or newly created territorial, property, ethnic and minority, confessional and other problems and contradictions in the mutual relations between the "traditional" states of the region and the newly - emerged state formations, which have unfavorable effects on the general stability and security in the region[23];
• The growing imbalance of the quantity and quality of the arms and armed forces of the countries in region as a result of the accumulated differences in their military, economic potential, and heritage from the time of the bloc opposition, in the creation and implementation of restrictive measures, of the differences in the responsibility, participation and obligations of the Balkan states in the general continental and regional security measures;
• The politicization of certain factors such as religious affiliation, ethnic- minority identification and socio- political self - determination, the appearance of a vacuum in moral, ethical and civilization values, the wave and the expansion of religious sects and deviation, formations of international organized crime, trafficking of drugs,[24].
• The lack of coordination and effective mechanisms for early discovery, monitoring, prevention and timely overcoming of crisis situation before they cross the pre-conflict threshold, utilization and implementation of the means of preventative diplomacy, mediation services, direct or mediated negotiation, etc.

There are some similar unfavorable tendencies and factors which manifest their negative effects with particular strength in the sub-region that was formed with the dissolution of the former Yugoslav federation and the appearance of an entire group of sovereign states in its place, with different state systems, foreign- policy orientations, degrees of internal political cohesion and stability, traditions and internationally recognized constitutions. These factors highly influence the pace of normalization of relations among the former Yugoslav republics, and different aspects of the region's stability and security as a whole.

These include the stacked distrust and hostility which greatly increased during the military conflicts between certain peoples and ethnic communities in Bosnia - Herzegovina, Croatia, and Serbia (Kosovo, Sandzak, Vojvodina, South Serbia) etc.; the periodical inflammation of territorial, border, property, ethnic - minority and other problems inherited from the past[25].

In analyzing the complex and often contradictory interaction of the number of factors influencing the situation and developments in the geo-political situation in the Balkans, and of the leading tendencies which mark the basic directions in the foreseeable future, one can perceive some more general characteristics, tendencies and prognoses:

• continuation of the high conflict potential, possibilities of changes in the geo-political status quoin the region through the activation of crisis phenomena, such as the increase in ethnic - minority or confessional tensions, territorial, property, environmental, border and other issues, complications in the internal political stability of certain states which have a broader sub-regional or regional resonance, etc.
• an especially clear conflict potential is perceived in certain regions: from the North of the South Eastern Europe: the Dnestr Republic and the autonomous unit of Gagauz Ery in Moldova, Northern Bukovina in Ukuraina, Transylvania in Romania, Vojvodina in Yugoslavia, Eastern Slavonia and Kninska Krajna in Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, the Piran Gulf between Croatia and Slovenia, the Prevlaka Peninsula between Yugoslavia and Croatia, the regions of Sandzak, Kosovo and South Serbia in the FRY; the Nord - Western parts of Macedonia, Western Thrace in Greece, the Aegean islands close to Asia Minor, and the island of Cyprus to the South of this region.

In the South Eastern part of the European continent there is a specific "area of instability" because of some genuinely existing and still active problems, inherited from the past or newly appeared. Latent problems or those already transformed into crises or pre-conflict situations which directly involve or indirectly affect almost all the countries in the region, both those which have existed for many centuries and have a long lasting state tradition and those which have appeared on the historical scene at the end of the 20^th century as internationally recognized state subjects.

With the end of what was called the Cold War, large parts of South Eastern Europe found themselves in a vacuum of the security[26]. Possibilities occurred for a new regional balance of powers and potentials, which disturbed the hitherto existing, stereotyped in the politics of the leading international factors in analyzing, overcoming and solving the "problems of the Balkan kind"[27].

Since the beginning of the 1990's, the approach of seeking a balance and counter - balance has increasingly been paving its way, and not "axis grouping" or opposition, but tendencies to seek solutions to the existing problems through negations and / or international arbitration[28].

The stability and security of the region and the internal political situation in its states are gaining an increasing importance and come to the foreground in the leading international factors - forums and organizations priorities. In their political activities regarding the Balkans, there is an increasing number of elements of the elaboration and introduction of new approaches and criteria in the reporting of and coordination with the geo-political realities of the region and its full and accelerated involvement in the general European dialogues and integrative processes.

There are such tendencies, which are likely to impose themselves in the foreseeable future as decisive factors in the development of the geo-political situation in the region:

• a gradual, and frequently difficult, stabilization of the situation in the former Yugoslav territory, especially regarding the implementation of the civil aspects of the Dayton and Paris agreements which affect not only the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the pacification in Kosovo after the military operation of NATO in 1999, but also other regions and problems of the former Yugoslavia:
• a gradual expansion of the full recognition and a normalization of the relations among the post- Yugoslav states; undertaking concrete obligations in the sphere of arms control and disarmament;
• the active involvement of the majority of states from the region in the building of partner relations which European and Euro-Atlantic organizations such as EC, NATO, WEU, OSCE, etc.;
• a declared desire to establish confidence and good neighborly relations and a general Balkan dialogue; the more and more striking bringing of new, non - standard aspects of regional cooperation and interaction into the foreground- humanitarian, environmental, infrastructure, power supply aspects[29], together with a consensus acceptance of the principia of complex participation in the efforts towards solving certain problems and guaranteeing the peace and security of the region[30].

However, a permanent and once-and-for-all amelioration does not quite seem likely to take place in the foreseeable future[31]. This requires time and a minimum stage of peace and security, in which the persistent positive tendencies will provide opportunities for their becoming into a firm future. Until then, the active attention and participation of the leading international forums, organizations and states, and the military factor will continue to play a decisive role in preserving peace and preventing the destabilization of this extremely important region of the European continent.

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